Japan election: Abe set to win key upper house vote

Japan goes to the polls on Sunday for upper house elections expected to deliver a win for PM Shinzo Abe.

Half of the 242 seats in the chamber are up for grabs.

Polls show Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its allies could secure a majority, meaning a ruling party would control both houses of parliament for the first time in six years.

The deadlock in parliament has been seen as a key factor in Japan's recent "revolving door" of prime ministers.

Japan's upper house, while not as powerful as its lower house, is able to block legislation introduced by the government.

Analysis

Elections to Japan's upper house of parliament are not usually something to get excited about. But this one is different.

Since his election last December Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has launched an aggressive economic growth programme to drag Japan out of 20 years of stagnation. It appears to be working. Japan's economy is now growing at a healthy 4%. The stock market is up 40% since January.

But to keep the growth going economists say Mr Abe needs to push through painful and unpopular structural reforms. Control of both the upper and lower houses of parliament would give Mr Abe the power he says he needs to enact those reforms. The question then is whether he will have the stomach to go up against the vested interests inside the LDP which are deeply opposed to opening Japan's economy to greater competition.

No single party has a majority, although the opposition Democratic Party of Japan has the highest number of seats.

Opposition parties have had enough combined seats to control the upper chamber in recent years, leading to what has become known as a "twisted parliament".

This has resulted in factionalism and multiple changes of prime minister.

"We need political stability to carry out policies," Mr Abe told reporters on Friday. "We will get that political stability by winning the upper house election."

Mr Abe has relatively strong public support for his proposals for economic reform known as "Abenomics", which seek to revive the economy, stagnant for two decades.

But other policy changes that he is seen as likely to endorse may prove to be controversial.

One is restarting Japan's nuclear reactors - something many in Japan are opposed to.

Another are nationalistic policies that may cause tension with neighbouring countries.

This includes the possible revision of Japan's pacifist constitution, especially a section which prohibits the use of force in international disputes except for self-defence.